43 teams have never been in NCAA tournament through 2015-16

Will any of the "original five" schools make NCAA's in 2017?

Everyone knows that there were five schools playing basketball in 1939 that have not made yet made the NCAA tournament. They are Army, Northwestern, St. Francis NY, The Citadel, and William & Mary. Do not let the "Year Joined 1948" in the accompanying table fool you, as that was the year the NCAA differentiated between large and small colleges. All 5 of these schools had hoops programs when the NCAA tournament began in '39. Which of these schools has the best chance to make it in 2017? It is hard to say, as anything can happen in conference tournaments, where any team is an upset or two away from an automatic tournament bid. There are 43 schools in the list below, 22 having joined Division I since the year 2000. Two schools made the tournament last season for the first time. The big questions is, will any of the schools in the left-hand column make it this year? We will find out on March 12.      

Current Division I Teams Never in NCAA Tournament, through 2016
           
  Year     Year  
Team Joined Team Joined
Army 1948   Elon 2000  
Northwestern 1948   High Point 2000  
St. Francis NY 1948   Sacred Heart 2000  
The Citadel 1948   UC Riverside 2002  
William & Mary 1948   Gardner-Webb 2003  
Maine 1962   IPFW 2003  
New Hampshire 1962   Savannah St. 2003  
UTRGV 1969   Lipscomb 2004  
Stetson 1972   Longwood 2008  
Grambling St. 1978   UC Davis 2008  
Bethune-Cookman 1981   Kennesaw St. 2010  
Md.-East. Shore 1982   North Florida 2010  
Western Illinois 1982   Utah Valley 2010  
Chicago St. 1985   Central Arkansas 2011  
Hartford 1985   USC Upstate 2012  
UMKC 1990   Bryant 2013  
Sacramento St. 1992   North Dakota 2013  
Youngstown St. 1992   Presbyterian 2013  
Tennessee-Martin 1993   SIU-Edwardsville 2013  
Jacksonville St. 1996   South Dakota 2013  
Denver 1999   Omaha 2016  
Quinnipiac 1999        

 

Bracket Bits from The RPI Report and The Women's RPI Report

Tidbits from recent issues of The RPI Report and The Women's RPI Report

From The RPI Report:  Seeding differential is determined by placing the 68-team NCAA tournament field in RPI rank order, using the Final, Regular Season RPI ratings, and numbering the first four RPI teams 1-1-1-1, the next four 2-2-2-2, through 16-16-16-16-16-16 (6 teams were given No. 11 seeds, and 6 were given No. 16 seeds, due to the First Four games). Adding up the weighted differences compared to the NCAA's actual seeds and dividing by the number of teams yields the average seeding differential per team. For the 2016 season, the seeding differential was 1.00, which was slightly better than the 22-year average of 1.10. For 2016, 24 teams were perfect seed matches, 28 teams were off of their predicted RPI seed by 1 place, 10 teams were off of their predicted seed by 2 places, 5 teams were off of their predicted seed by 3 places, no teams were off by 4 places, and 1 team was off of its predicted seed by 5 places.

From The Women's RPI Report:  Seeding differential is determined by placing the 64-team NCAA field in RPI rank order, using the Final, Regular Season RPI ratings, and numbering the first four RPI teams 1-1-1-1, the next four 2-2-2-2, through 16-16-16-16. Adding up the weighted differences compared to the NCAA's actual seeds and dividing by the number of teams yields the average seeding differential per team. For the 2016 season, the seeding differential was 1.09, which was slightly worse than the 20-year average of 1.01. For 2016, 22 teams were perfect seed matches, 23 teams were off of their predicted RPI seed by 1 place, 13 teams were off of their predicted seed by 2 places, 4 teams were off of their predicted seed by 3 places, 1team was off by 4 places, and 1 team was off of its predicted seed by 5 places.
 

Teams with No. 1 schedule strength rankings can usually look forward to NCAA tournament invitation

Oregon had No. 1 end of regular season overall RPI schedule strength rank and made elite 8 in NCAA tournament

The Oregon Ducks won top honors for the best overall schedule strength at the end of the 2016 regular season. The Ducks had the No. 5 opponents' won-lost record of 627-415 (.6017) in the regular season, and the No. 13 rank of opponents' RPI played, which are both alternate ways of determining schedule strength. Stanford had the best cumulative opponents' won-lost record of 561-356 (.6118), and Texas had the No. 1 rank of opponents' RPI played. Oregon received a No. 1 seed and made it to the Elite 8 of the NCAA tournament before losing to Oklahoma by a score of 80-68. Since 1991, 21 of the 26 teams holding the No. 1 schedule strength rank at the end of the regular season were in the NCAA tournament, and 22 of those 26 teams were in post-season play. However, having the No. 1 schedule strength does not guarantee success in the NCAA tournament. In 5 of the last 15 seasons, the team holding top schedule strength honors has lost in the first round (using pre-2011 terminology) of the NCAA tournament. In the 11 years prior to that, just 1 team with the No. 1 schedule strength that made the NCAA tournament lost in the first round, although 3 of those teams did not make the NCAA tournament. The best that a team has done in the NCAA tournament since 1991 that had the best regular-season schedule strength was North Carolina in 1997, which lost in the national semifinals to eventual national champion Arizona. Notre Dame had the best regular-season schedule strength in 1992 with a 14-14 record and finished second in the NIT. List

Several conferences use CBN's RPI data to break tournament seeding ties

Administrators have complete confidence in CBN's RPI

Nearly all conference offices subscribe to both The RPI Report and The Women's RPI Report because they know they can count on the most accurate weighted RPI for the men and the women anywhere this side of the NCAA tournament selection committees. CBN first made the Adjusted RPI ratings (which are no longer used for either the men nor the women) available to The RPI Report and The Women's RPI Report subscribers during the 1998-99 season. The NCAA used the Adjusted RPI ratings from the 1993-94 through the 2003-04 season for the men and have used the weighted RPI since the 2004-05 season, while the women used the Adjusted RPI through the 2010-11 season and began using the weighted RPI during the 2011-12 season. The weighted RPI gives more credit to teams that schedule tough opponents and that beat good teams at home and on the road. Story

AP carried CBN's Men's RPI Ratings for 16th consecutive year during the 2009-10 season

2009-10 was the 13th season that AP distributed CBN's Women's RPI Ratings

During the 2009-10 season, the Associated Press (AP) carried CBN's RPI ratings for both men's and women's college basketball, for the 16th consecutive year, for at least part of the season. In addition, 2009-10 was the 13th consecutive season that the AP distributed the women's RPI for at least part of the season. Story